Rainer Märkle – GP at HV Capital, the largest venture capital firm in Germany. For those who don’t know already, HV was founded in 2000 as a corporate venture arm of the Holtzbrinck Publishing Group, became an independent firm in 2010 and rebranded to HV Capital in 2020.

What’s new with HV Capital, and what are the highlights of 2025?

2025 was such a busy year: 20 new investments with more than €200m deployed only in 2025, our portfolio in on track to raise more than €2bn this year alone.

Highlights are some technology breakthroughs, unprecedented operational growth and financing rounds such as n8n and Quantum Systems.

How would you describe the European tech and funding environment right now in one sentence? Do you expect major corrections to come or are we in a normalisation period – and what does ‘winning’ in European venture looks like in the 2030 timeframe?

European tech and funding is entering a decade of disruptive transformation and unprecedented opportunities.

I do not expect major corrections (other than in late-stage AI) but rather more tailwind for more opportunities – and capital to follow those.

HV Capital is competing against massive American multi-stage platforms and specialized seed funds – where does HV sit in that squeeze?

HV Capital comes in strictly before the American multi-stage platforms who come on board in follow-on rounds after us.

And we are the strong first generalist investor after specialized seed funds, helping companies to really scale.

A clear and strong position to be in, only possible with our 25 year / 280 investments done network.

Are bets like defence and tech defining the ‘European Sovereignty’ thesis actually driving returns for Euro VCs, or is it just a nice narrative to justify why we aren’t competing with the US on pure software margins?

Definitely driving returns for us, just look at portfolio companies such as Quantum Systems.

Which sectors will produce the next German unicorns – and which sectors are structurally incapable of producing them now? And is Germany prepared for a world where technology is increasingly militarized?

How could I not say AI and deep tech?

But we see Unicorns growing up in our portfolio in Consumer, Fintech and other sectors as well.

We do not see any structural disadvantages for most sectors.

Germany is not quite there yet, but some strong initiatives are started.

What do you think is the best place in Europe to build a generational startup today? Why?

Munich.

Unparalleled combination of universities, talent pool, industry, ecosystem and capital.

Are we in an AI bubble, or just witnessing the early phase of a multi-decade platform transition? What is a major shift in the next three years that almost no one in the startup world is talking about yet?

I would not say we are in an AI bubble, but I assume I sleep better as an early/growth investor in AI than the very late-stage guys.

And please let me know once you hear about that major shift over the next three years, we will definitely invest.

What are some interesting startups you came across lately?

It would be unfair to mention specific names here, but definitely in the areas of deep tech and AI.

Now, that is already mainstream again, so very curious what will come out in 2026.

What’s the most promising AI investment you passed on and what did you learn from the decision? And conversely, which company in your current portfolio best reflects where the world is heading?

We are fast learners, so after passing on n8n in the early stages we invested in the early growth stage.

I guess it is also a clear example of where the world is heading: very short cycles, incredibly high momentum, the world changes so fast.

Everybody in our industry will remember that day when chatGPT launched and how it changed everything upside down.

What’s one piece of advice you find yourself giving repeatedly to startups in today’s environment?

Always be very careful of not resting on merits and just staying on your path, but rather be closely tracking and responding to where new topics are moving.

We are doing regularly interviews for taking the pulse of the startup market through the eyes of the investors – you can subscribe to have them sent by email as soon as we published new ones.