Each new year arrives with its own blend of optimism, uncertainty, and opportunity – but few moments feel as pivotal as the one we’re stepping into now.

While the macro and geo-politics are as challenging as they’ve ever been, the last twelve months also reshaped entire industries: AI moved from experimentation to execution, capital markets recalibrated, and startups found themselves navigating both unprecedented pressure and unexpected tailwinds.

What do we have ahead of us? No forecast is perfect but the momentum is only accelerating – the signals are loud, the patterns are emerging, and the next wave is already forming. I asked a few astute observers from the European ecosystem about what they make of all these – you can explore their thoughts below.

2026 market – optimist or pessimist? Why?

Carmen Rico – founder at Cocoa

Optimistic! There are tons of things about this market that I struggle with, but I back founders at pre-seed. There’s never been a better time to build (I don’t think this is a cliché), and their energy is infectious. There’s also never been a harder time to win, but I’m very excited for all the Cocoa founders and all the founders I’ll meet in 2026 and what they’ll build.

The best is yet to come, always.

Ed Lascelles – partner at AlbionVC

Optimist. The IPO market has opened, huge secondaries are going through – and so liquidity is coming back into venture, just as we see markets in AI, stablecoins, cyber etc. moving at extraordinary pace.

Eleanor Warnock – head of communication Bek Ventures

I’m optimistic because there are people like Yann LeCun who are looking beyond generative AI to the next big breakthrough and choosing to explore that on this side of the pond.

Being outside of Silicon Valley (or even just off LinkedIn!) might be the best hack for 2026. 

Hussein Kanji – founding partner at Hoxton Ventures

No idea. I take each day as it comes. If you can reliably tell me the future, I promise to give you all my money. I was optimistic at the end of 2024, only to be hit with tariffs, NIH cuts and all kinds of other stuff in Q1 2025.

I’m an optimist. You have to be in this business.

The quality of European startups has never been better. In the exciting world of AI, I am starting to see equivalent (or better) European company. Heygen vs Synthesia. Cartesia vs ElevenLabs. Bolt vs Lovable.

Marie Brayer – founder at Mox Ventures

“Half boner” – Ai adoption is actually crazy, some companies out of Europe are able to execute the playbook or really want to.

Technical founders are more and more understood by investors, what was niche and nerdy is now (more) mainstream and you find European alternatives among generalist downstream investors for the first time for really technical topics / you only had in the US before.

Mike Butcher – founder at Pathfounders

I am an optimist about AI, but a pessimist about the financing of AI.

The Big Tech platforms have loaded up on debt. The Chips-to-models-to-chips circle-jerk of AI platform financing is plain to see.

There will be either a large markets correction or a crash. The only question is whether it will be survivable or not.

That said, little of that will not make much difference to startups, which will continue to build.

Indeed, if there’s a collapse, many AI platforms will become cheaper for startups to build upon.

Nicolas Colin – Macro & Markets Writer at Drift Signal

I am an optimist, but with a clear caveat: the playbook has changed.

Carlota Perez’s “synergy phase” where software easily ate the world has passed, placing us in a late-cycle maturity phase structurally similar to the 1970s for oil, automobiles and mass production. Consequently, value is shifting from financial capital toward production capital required for hard assets and infrastructure. Current AI investment confirms this, as the technology relies heavily on the physical compute-energy stack rather than software.

Philipp Moehring – co-founder at Tiny VC

1. I am an absolute optimist on the micro level, yet I am more nervous on the macro.

Unfortunately I think we’ll see more of what we saw this year: Everyone is successful but no one is happy. There will be exuberance and celebration for a lot of new monster rounds, fast growing companies, and hopefully some much needed exits.

There will be amazing new companies and founders will build incredible things with the capital we invest, and with the freedom they gain from an active ecosystem across Europe. People will find their calling, solve problems, and make customers happy, no doubt.

2. I also believe we have a lot of jitters ahead. Starting on the tech side with wild investments in AI infra, which really only have one way to work out: Everything will have to work out.

That’s why I’m bearish on private credit being a ‘safe’ way to access AI returns – the downside is significant while the upsite is already priced. There are questions about which companies can IPO and deliver long lasting returns, and which will be marked up and back down later.

3. On the geopolitical side, the last quarters really haven’t given us more safety or positive news. While I think it’s really, really good that the EU is pulling it together, there is a lot of pain in what looks to be ahead.

Again, if everything works out, we’re going to be closer together, have a stronger economy, better military, and future proof industries. If not, we’re going to experience some awful things.

4. The upshot is that we thankfully work in an industry that got used to going through ups and downs. There are many people who will just leave, and there will be many who stick around and support each other, and build the best new iteration next time.

Will we learn? I doubt it, but that’s half the guilty pleasure of it. Let’s get better at ingesting and digesting this increased and sped up volatility, we’re all going to need those skills.

Robin Wauters – founder at Profoundo

Rather pessimistic in the short term, rather optimistic in the longer run.

It’s clear that we’re going through a European tech rut at the moment, and I don’t see the situation improving all that much in the coming 12 months. A lot needs to happen for a proper, sustainable rebound (or just ‘bound’ if you will) and those things will not happen overnight or magically by themselves.

Sten Tamkivi – founding partner at Plural

As a founder at heart, I am always an optimist! (Maybe sometimes in a mode my friend Risto from Finland suggests as more effective: a paranoid optimist)

The talent, innovation and ambition in the European ecosystem is at levels I’ve never seen. The market here is hitting serious traction and seems to finally have self-belief.

When we started to use language about “GDP level impact”, “100B+ European companies” and  “global tech champions from Europe” when starting Plural just four years ago, it felt edgy – now this is becoming the national and regional mainstream in politics, driving priorities and budgets.

I’m genuinely excited to see what 2026 holds.

What single metric will matter most for raising in 2026?

Carmen Rico – founder at Cocoa

At pre-seed: do you know a secret others don’t know?

Ed Lascelles – partner at AlbionVC

Still DPI (quite rightly).

Eleanor Warnock – head of communication Bek Ventures

Quality of your revenue.

Hussein Kanji – founding partner at Hoxton Ventures

Growth. Now and into the future.

Basically, don’t be an average SaaS company, where growth collapses to the low teens by the time you’re a $250m+ revenue company.

I also have a sneaking suspicion durability and moats will start to matter in the VC land. The kids in venture are going to be so confused that the world doesn’t begin and end with markups

Marie Brayer – founder at Mox Ventures

The bar for “revenue / growth” narratives is insane now – think 1->5M ARR with little to no burn or 1->10M ARR with decent burn.

For technical companies / pre-revenue it’s customer love. Do we hear “holly shit” from customers?

Mike Butcher – founder at Pathfounders

Distribution. The technology angle of most ‘plays’ is increasingly attainable. But not everyone is a genius at distribution.

Nicolas Colin – Macro & Markets Writer at Drift Signal

I believe cash efficiency is the one. It marks a shift not only from cheap to costly money but also from pure equity to a more blended capital stack.

As the economy tilts toward hard assets and infrastructure, investors will move from blitzscaling funded by venture capital to building hard assets funded by credit discipline. In this setting, cash efficiency is the only reliable way for startups to reach the new blended capital stack, endure lean periods, and keep control without relying on ever more selective equity investors.

Philipp Moehring – co-founder at Tiny VC

I hope it’s going to be skills and actual performance, but judging by what I’ve seen over the last decades, it’s probably going to be good communication, LinkedIn posting and conference attendance.

Just kidding, it’s going to be solving real problems with real tech, and spending time with people that matter.

Robin Wauters – founder at Profoundo

The good old boring LTV:CAC Ratio. But that will (and probably) should be the ‘gold standard’ metric for fundraising every year, as it shows your likelihood of scalability.

Sten Tamkivi – founding partner at Plural

Moat/defensibility in the AI era.

What will surprise the European ecosystem next year – good or bad?

Carmen Rico – founder at Cocoa

The number of European founders moving to the US, specifically the Valley, even before starting their companies. I call it The Great Migration.

Ed Lascelles – partner at AlbionVC

Good: quite how many amazing businesses are created next year. As with SaaS, the West Coast started, but the rest of the world followed.

Eleanor Warnock – head of communication Bek Ventures

For the first time since World War II, Europe is alone in the world, and the region’s leaders, both business and political, are just coming to grips with this. The US doesn’t care about Europe or European tech, and it might get even harder for European companies to break into the US even if they have US investors.

This is about to surprise European founders. Get someone on your cap table who can help you make inroads in the US if that is where you need to be to reach global scale. It’s still the largest software market in the world. 

Hussein Kanji – founding partner at Hoxton Ventures

The EU will finally retract the ultra ridiculous cookie law. Maybe. Hopefully. Pretty please.

Marie Brayer – founder at Mox Ventures

I think we’re going to see the IPOs next year – and with “good surprises” in the unit economics and P&Ls of the secretive AI startups (Europe and US).

Bad: lowkey a lot of VCs are out of cash or soon to be out of cash and the LP liquidity is not great still – I’d say team attrition in VCs / smaller funds is going to be a thing.

Mike Butcher – founder at Pathfounders

If they get it right, German family offices being forced by Merz to invest more, especially in defence tech. For the good.

But to the bad, Russia will continue its hybrid attacks and there’s no reason to assume it wouldn’t start attack turning its attention to anything that gives the West a technological edge, such as startups.

Nicolas Colin – Macro & Markets Writer at Drift Signal

What will surprise the European ecosystem is how central Legacy Industrials will become as buyers, partners, and strategic investors—after fifteen years of advice urging founders to avoid incumbents. The current wave of AI adoption depends on close collaboration between startups and the established manufacturers that still anchor Europe’s economy.

Those Legacy Industrials provide scale, expertise, data, and early deployment sites, while startups bring speed and new technology. In our new world, incumbents are not a distraction but the path to adoption, market access, and lasting advantage. The ASML–Mistral deal may be an early sign of what’s to come.

Philipp Moehring – co-founder at Tiny VC

Good surprise: We have what it takes too build, grow, and finance amazing businesses.

Bad surprise: American and Asian disinterest at the least, outright hostility at the worst, might give us a real kick in the ass.

Robin Wauters – founder at Profoundo

I’m biased, but the biggest surprise for the European tech ecosystem in 2026 might just be the birth of an EU-INC framework, or the building blocks of a ’28th regime’ measure in EU institutional parlance.

We’re in a better position now than we’ve ever been to bring that home, although it will require political will and courage to support innovation in a structural fashion. It would certainly be a positive surprise for anyone involved.

Sten Tamkivi – founding partner at Plural

What free and democratic Europe needs is Russia to lose in Ukraine, not get prized with territorial or other gains for violently attacking a sovereign neighbor. (In political lingo, I guess that’s “just and lasting peace”?)

Anything else will create massive negative “surprises” far beyond the startup scene.

European tech sovereignty (for energy, compute, manufacturing automation, space, defense, etc) of course needs to stay top of the agenda even if the fighting stops.

Which part of the AI tech stack will explode next year that almost nobody is talking about yet?

Carmen Rico – founder at Cocoa

We might realize that super intelligence won’t be built on top of LLMs and that we have to rethink the full AI stack.

Ed Lascelles – partner at AlbionVC

There is as much innovation in physical AI as the foundational and application layers – no surprise given where hyperscaler cash is being invested. Energy supply and chip design is regularly discussed, but there are technical innovations coming through in networking that are game changing.

Eleanor Warnock – head of communication Bek Ventures

AI has infiltrated coding so much that ‘vibe coding’ was Collins Dictionary’s 2025 word of the year. Next year, we’re going to see a lot more creative people, especially designers, finding ways of implementing AI into their workflows.

Design + AI is going to blow up.

Hussein Kanji – founding partner at Hoxton Ventures

Reasoning models will up level by 10x and make a massive difference in our quest to have computers rule the world.

Marie Brayer – founder at Mox Ventures

1/ on device inference Dima Shvets is genius / or in the US the OSS project MLC.

2/ tabular AI (AI for table data, not text).

Mike Butcher – founder at Pathfounders

Neuro-symbolic AI – while training will remain important, Neuro-symbolic, which is more about inference, will take centre stage, especially in Agentic systems.

One such example here.

Nicolas Colin – Macro & Markets Writer at Drift Signal

Next year, I expect the compute layer—chips, accelerators, and the data centres that run them—to surge. Generative AI is already straining capacity, making specialised hardware a critical bottleneck.

Over the longer term, however, the real transformation is the programmable grid, where energy becomes intelligent and software-defined. Chips will lead in 2026, but electrification, currently dominated by China, is the underlying AI-driven shift that will ultimately define the next technological revolution.

Philipp Moehring – co-founder at Tiny VC

Local inference is now closer to reality, and it will be a great opportunity – both to solve specific problems and to improve economics.

Plumbing will be the next big wave: How data is managed, how logistics for data, compute and agents look like, how local applications can be built and scaled, how multi model setups really work and can be standardised across offerings and APIs.

VLAs, and other approaches for agency in hardware need to be solved. I am not sure the current waive of robotics data startups are going to be long-lived if they don’t find their own applications, but maybe their experience will help us solve these issues.

Robin Wauters – founder at Profoundo

Agentic orchestration. Or, in other words, the ‘brain behind the AI agent brain’ control layer that enables AI systems to break tasks into steps, choose the right tools or models, manage memory, and validate outputs so they can act reliably rather than just generate text or perform other basic tasks.

It’s underestimated because frontier models get the spotlight, but real automation depends on this scaffolding layer that handles planning, safety, and multi-step execution. As agents become more capable, orchestration will become the “operating system” that determines which AI platforms are reliable, scalable, and truly useful in production.

And yes, part of this answer was generated by ChatGPT, but I own it, and I actually believe this strongly.

Sten Tamkivi – founding partner at Plural

The layers below the generalizable models leading labs + neolabs are working on: compute, networking, cooling, energy use.

This stuff is hard, needs careful timing of when decades of research is ready to come out of the labs to become commercial companies, and then still takes years to productize.

But there have been teams around Europe at work for years, and the global data centers investments pull them out of the shadows with force like never before.

 Which non-AI category will unexpectedly make a comeback?

Carmen Rico – founder at Cocoa

Consumer. I think we’re on the verge of an SEO moment.

Ed Lascelles – partner at AlbionVC

Basically every category will come back. In every market there will be businesses that outexecute because they are AI-enabled ahead of competition, and there will be new business models that become viable when you take humans out the loop, creating entirely new categories in many sectors.

Eleanor Warnock – head of communication Bek Ventures

Quantum, though it’s always been there simmering in the background. Countries like Spain are stepping up.

Hussein Kanji – founding partner at Hoxton Ventures

Building things will become more important. Building things with super high gross margins (using tech) will be fuel for a re-industrialization process. This is definitely the direction things are going in the US. I am not sure about Europe.

There isn’t yet a coming together of industrial builders and techies. Steffi has been lobbying for this for over a decade at DLD but nothing happens. I am not sure Europe gets it.

Marie Brayer – founder at Mox Ventures

B2C is ready to make a comeback. Uber etc are 10 year old.

Mike Butcher – founder at Pathfounders

Batteries. As Europe increasingly thinks about resilience, ordinary batteries will become the next line of defence for infrastructure.

Nicolas Colin – Macro & Markets Writer at Drift Signal

Defence and “New Industrials.” Geopolitical fragmentation, China’s dominance in manufacturing, and the return of war to Europe have made manufacturing strategically critical again.

We are seeing a shift where hardware begins to drive software. Startups focused on the “Electric Tech Stack”—batteries, motors, power electronics, and semiconductors—will find urgent demand from governments, defence agencies, and Legacy Industrials. This sector is poised to boom, as it offers the only path to resilience and strategic power amid breaking global supply chains.

Philipp Moehring – co-founder at Tiny VC

Transportation – Waymo is probably at a 1B runrate, and they’re making a lot of people dance.

As we’ve seen with ridesharing, this is another a winner take all market, and there are a lot of interesting players and technologies that will make this a reality.

Robin Wauters – founder at Profoundo

Perhaps not that unexpectedly, and not sure it has ever really gone away, but longevity aka the science of healthy ageing. Poised for a comeback in 2026 as new therapies mature and consumers shift toward data-driven, physical wellness to counterbalance an increasingly AI-heavy lifestyle.

Sten Tamkivi – founding partner at Plural

Cleantech. Sometimes looking at the public discourse a simple news reader might feel that the wave is somehow over, or has taken a back seat to AI and defense.

The core long term issues around our planet heating up are rather getting worse with exponentially growing buildout for compute, manufacturing, materials acquisition, etc.

Luckily there are smart people head down working on solutions, like Rivan Industries we backed this year. You just have to work harder to find the best ones because the “climate”, “green” and “ESG” labels have gone out of vogue.

What is one specific trend, buzzword, or business model that will ‘die’ in the next 12 months?

Carmen Rico – founder at Cocoa

9-9-6. There’s no work schedule for a founder, a startup is full life – you do what you’ve got to do, whenever you’ve got to do it. And you don’t tweet about it :).

Ed Lascelles – partner at AlbionVC

“AI-first”. AI will fade in to a background capability like mobile, cloud, blockchain.

Eleanor Warnock – head of communication Bek Ventures

Slop. The Internet is a trash heap; no need to call it out anymore.

What we will be talking about in 2025 is ‘storytelling,’ or how to be differentiated and authentically unreplicable by AI. On the storytelling moodboard: Every VC is a content studio.

Stripe launching a video series in which John Collison interviews people over a pint. More companies hiring former journalists as ‘internal reporters.’ Character-era marketing tactics like YouTube video eating traditional marketing tactics like static blogs. Expect cringe results.

Hussein Kanji – founding partner at Hoxton Ventures

The idea that should die is that trade is bad. But it won’t.

We’ve seen a growing set of VCs who don’t believe trade makes you wealthy. It’s disguised under the rhetoric of European dynamism and is more of an insecurity about the scale of the American tech industry. Across the pond you see the Trump Administration pushing a similar, narrow narrative.

This doesn’t add up. Trade isn’t zero sum. It makes both sides of the pond richer. The path to success for Europe navigates through the US; build here, sell there. It’s also become clear that the US can’t ignore the tech innovation that is accelerating from Europe.

Marie Brayer – founder at Mox Ventures

Don’t know, don’t follow buzzwords.

Mike Butcher – founder at Pathfounders

“Web 2.5” – The attempt to marry Web 2.0 and Web 3 / Blockchain. No-one cares any more.

Nicolas Colin – Macro & Markets Writer at Drift Signal

Next year, startups applying AI to a sector with a traditional SaaS approach—rigid UIs, forms, and menus—are going to struggle. The winners will be AI-native companies that act as dynamic middleware, adapting to human intent, orchestrating workflows, and connecting across systems. No more SaaS companies that simply add their own Clippy-style AI assistants or copilots. The future is platforms that disappear into the workflow, while old-school, UI-heavy SaaS products fade into irrelevance.

Philipp Moehring – co-founder at Tiny VC

Buzzwords don’t die, they just retire. I think scaling through compute and raising massive capital for it will be a thing of 2025. If necessary, new deal structures will be found – but I actually think we’ll end up with better tech to make this happen.

Especially on the AI side, the only possibility for Europe to play a meaninful part is to find ways to build on smaller infra, but I believe local inference is not far off and that might be a boon for us.

I hope LinkedIn listicles with emojis for bullet points will die, but I am not too hopeful.

Robin Wauters – founder at Profoundo

I really don’t know, but hope springs eternal: perhaps people will stop using terms like Web3 and ‘the metaverse’ at some point? Still mostly solutions looking for a problem any way you slice it.

Sten Tamkivi – founding partner at Plural

IoT as a “thing in itself” maybe?

The evolved framing is more about “how do you make AI sense the world in all possible ways beyond the text from the internet” and “building world models” – e.g the emphasis of companies is clearly on the meaning derived, not just deployment of sensors and gathering raw data.

The next big thing will be…?

Carmen Rico – founder at Cocoa

Who knows. And that’s why this is fun.

My bet (maybe it’s the holiday season): a return to basic human connection. We have over-optimized ourselves. In 2026, fun, beauty, and play will beat productivity.

Ed Lascelles – partner at AlbionVC

In AI, Systems of execution: products that don’t just record or recommend, they execute with permissions, controls, and accountability (closing the loop from insight → action → outcome). The winners will bundle record + automation/workflow + execution.
Outside AI – Quantum is about to go mainstream.

Eleanor Warnock – head of communication Bek Ventures

New and improved UX for LLMs! I think we’re barely scratching the surface with the chat interface, and asking questions/tinkering to get to an answer is not a natural way of working for many people.

Agents are also out of the realm of use for most people currently. Just hope that interface doesn’t include tons and tons of ads to buy crap on Amazon. 

Hussein Kanji – founding partner at Hoxton Ventures

See above on building things. Hardware will be big. Semi innovation will come back. It won’t stop there. Sensors, cameras, materials, – all are ripe for new innovations.

Virtually every leading research university and lab in the EU and US is already conceiving these innovations. Many are exiting academia – or will soon – to explore and pursue real world deployments in massive markets.

Marie Brayer – founder at Mox Ventures

I don’t want to like it, but neoprimes is a thing with B$ of potential revenue from recent budget unlocks.

Quantum System from Germany.

Alta Ares from France.

Mike Butcher – founder at Pathfounders

Further advances in nuclear, fusion research, and SMRs.

Nicolas Colin – Macro & Markets Writer at Drift Signal

The next big thing is unfolding in two stages:

In the mid-term, we’re heading for a “Big Bang” in financial markets, similar to the reforms of the 1970s and 1980s—this time driven by tokenisation and the rise of programmable capital. All assets will become tradable, programmable instruments with automated governance, moving faster and at far lower cost.

In the long term, electrification will drive the next technological revolution. Just as the Internet became a platform for innovation, programmable electricity will turn the energy grid into a software-defined platform, forming the foundation for countless new applications we can’t yet imagine.

Philipp Moehring – co-founder at Tiny VC

We don’t know, and that’s what makes it fun!

Robin Wauters – founder at Profoundo

Yesterday’s small thing. But seriously, I wouldn’t bet against ’embodied AI’ or artificial intelligence that’s embedded in physical systems like robots or devices. We’ve only scratched the surface there.

Sten Tamkivi – founding partner at Plural

The first 1 trillion euro global tech champion from Europe.

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